世界银行报告显示,除能源价格外,几乎所有大宗商品价格在2013年出现下降,其中肥料(-17.4%)、贵金属(-17.0%)、农产品(-7.2%)、金属材料(-5.5%),上述数据以2010年价格为基准。

报告预测2014年商品价格趋势将持续,肥料(-11.7%)和贵金属(-13.1%)保持两位数降幅,能源价格仍基本持平,只有原材料价格可望实现反转(从-5.9%转为0.9%),上述数据仍以2010年价格为基准。

 

 

实际价格

预测价格

增减(%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Energy

80

100

129

128

127

127

124

-0.1

-0.1

-2.6

Non-Energy

83

100

120

110

102

99

99

-7.2

-2.6

-0.2

Metals

68

100

113

96

91

89

90

-5.5

-1.7

1.1

Agriculture

89

100

122

114

106

104

103

-7.2

-2.5

-0.6

Food

93

100

123

124

116

111

110

-7.1

-3.7

-1.4

Grains

99

100

138

141

128

116

117

-9.3

-9.8

0.8

Fats and oils

90

100

121

126

116

116

113

-8.1

0.5

-3.2

Other food

90

100

111

107

104

101

100

-3.0

-3.1

-0.8

Beverages

86

100

116

93

83

82

82

-10.1

-2.0

0.4

RawMaterials

83

100

122

101

95

96

97

-5.9

0.9

1.1

Fertilizers

105

100

143

138

114

100

99

-17.4

-11.7

-1.4

Preciousmetals

78

100

136

138

115

100

98

-16.9

-13.1

-1.8

Memorandum items

Crude oil($/bbl)

62

79

104

105

104

103

100

-0.9

-0.6

-3.5

Gold ($/toz)

973

1225

1,569

1,670

1,412

1,220

1,200

-15.4

-13.6

-1.6

 

With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, fol­lowed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agri­culture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel (bbl) during 2013, marginally lower than the $105/bbl aver­age of 2012. Most non-energy commodity prices, notably grains, followed a downward path during 2013.

In the baseline scenario, which assumes no macroeco­nomic shocks or supply disruptions, oil prices are expected to average $103/bbl in 2014, just 1 percent lower than the 2013 average. Natural gas prices in the US are expected to increase due to stronger demand from energy intensive industries that are moving to the U.S. to take advantage of the “energy dividend”. On the other hand, EU natural gas and Japanese LNG prices will moderate due to weaker demand (both prices are tied to the price of oil). Coal prices are expected to increase as well as—more coal is being used for electricity generation due to substi­tution away from nuclear power.

Agricultural prices are projected to decline a further 2.5 percent in 2014 under the assumption that the existing improved crop conditions will continue for the rest of the year. Specifically, prices of food and beverages are expected to drop by 3.7 and 2.0 percent—raw material prices will not change much. Metal prices will declinean additional 1.7 percent in 2014 as new supplies are expected to come on board while there are no expecta­tions of a surge in demand. Fertilizer prices are expected to decline almost 12 percent in 2014, on top of the 17.4 percent decline in 2013, mostly due to new fertilizer plants coming on stream in the U.S., in turn a response to low natural gas prices. Similarly, precious metals are expected to decline more than 13 percent in 2014 as institutional investors increasingly consider them less attractive “safe haven” alternatives.

There are a number of risks to the baseline forecasts. Downside risks include weak oil demand if growth pros­pects in emerging economies (where most of the demand growth is taking place) deteriorate sharply. Over the long term, demand for oil could be dampened further if sub­stitution between oil and natural gas intensifies. On the upside, a key risk remains a major oil supply disruption in the Gulf, which could add as much as $50 to the price of oil. However, the severity and duration of the outcome depends on a number of factors, including policy actions regarding emergency reserves, demand curtailment and OPEC’s response. Yet, the price risks in the oil market are weighed mostly on the downside as the probability of an oil supply disruption is much lower now for 2014 than it was a year ago for 2013.

Another source of uncertainty in the medium- and long-term outlook is how OPEC, notably Saudi Arabia, reacts to changing global demand and supply conditions as well as how fast other key players (mainly Iraq, Iran, and Libya) will reach earlier output levels. Since 2004, when oil prices exceeded $35/bbl (the upper limit of the range deemed “appropriate” by OPEC at the time), the Organization has responded to subsequent price weakneses by reducing sup­plies. But it has also increased supplies when prices exceed the $100-110 range for an extended period of time—as it did last year following output reductions by Iraq and Libya. Indeed, with few exceptions, the $100-110 range has been maintained during the past three years. However, as non-OPEC supplies (notably unconventional oil) come on stream and substitution by other types of energy inten­sifies, such an approach may not be sustainable.

Price risks on metals depend on new supplies coming on stream and growth of China’s economy. Metal prices have declined 30 percent since their early 2011 highs, but have been relatively stable during the past three quarters. Last year’s declines reflected moderate demand growth and strong supply response, the latter a result of increased investment of the past few years which was induced by high prices. The prospects of the metal market depend crucially on Chinese demand, as the country accounts for almost 45 percent of global metal consumption. How­ever, if robust supply trends continue and weaker-than-expected demand growth materializes, metal prices may decline more than the baseline presented in this outlook, with significant negative consequences for metal exporters (and benefits for metals importers).

In agricultural commodity markets the key risk is weather. According to the global crop outlook assessment released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on January 11, 2014, the global maize market will be better supplied in the current 2013/14 season—production and stocks are expected to increase by 12 and 20.5 percent, respectively. Wheat will improve as well (production and stocks up 8.6 and 5.3 percent), but still below historical standards. Price risks for rice are on the downside, especially in view of a well-supplied market and the large public stocks held by Thailand. Indeed, when the Thai government announced the release of stocks last September, rice prices came under pressure. Edible oil and oilseed markets have lim­ited upside risks as well. The marginal price increase of the edible oil price index during 2013Q4 (up 4.7 percent from 2013Q2) reflected idiosyncratic factors of some markets rather than a broad-based trend. The global out­put of 17 major edible oils is expected to reach 196.3 million tons during 2013/14, up from last season’s 187.6 million tons.

Other risks for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside as well. For example, the risk of trade policies impacting agricultural prices is low as evidenced by the absence of any export restrictions during 2011-13, despite several spikes in prices (notably maize and wheat). Finally, production of biofuels experienced a third year of little (or no) growth, as policy makers increasingly realize that the environmental and energy independence benefits from biofuels may not outweigh the costs.

GlocalWin对该文观点不作置评(GlocalWin does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of this Article

 

2014年02月10日

世界银行预测 2014年多数大宗商品价格续呈下降态势

发布时间:

本网站由阿里云提供云计算及安全服务