世界银行201447发布《东亚和太平洋地区经济半年报》,预计今年东亚和太平洋地区发展中国家的经济将呈现稳定增长,其支撑因素的是高收入经济体的经济复苏和迄今市场对美联储削减量化宽松的温和反应。

半年报预计东亚发展中国家今年将增长7.1%,和2013年基本持平。因此,东亚地区仍然是世界上增长最快的地区,尽管2009年至2013年从8.0%的平均增速逐渐放慢。中国今年的经济增速将从2013年的7.7%略微放缓至7.6%。除中国外,预计该地区其他发展中国家增长5.0%,比去年的5.2%略有下降。

世界银行东亚和太平洋地区副行长阿克塞尔托森伯格说:自从爆发全球金融危机以来,东亚地区一直作为全球主要的增长引擎。今年全球经济增长走强,将有助于该地区在做出调整以适应全球金融环境收紧的同时,以相对稳定的速度扩张。

较大的东南亚经济体如印度尼西亚和泰国将面临全球金融环境收紧和居民债务水平上升。马来西亚预计2014年经济增速将小幅加快至4.9%,出口将会增加,但偿债成本上升和进行中的财政整顿会拖累内需。菲律宾经济增速有可能放缓至6.6%,但灾后重建支出加快将抵消2013年受自然灾害影响对消费的拖累。

较小的经济体预计将稳步增长,但也面临经济过热的风险,可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。柬埔寨大选后恢复了改革势头,预期会有助于今年增速稳定在7.2%,但劳动力市场不稳定可能会带来下行风险。结构性改革的稳步推进将有助于缅甸实现7.8%的增长。但因银行业及其他部门的结构性改革进展有限,越南经济预计小幅增长,今年增速可达5.5%。大部分太平洋岛国和东帝汶继续依赖于发达经济体的援助和汇款。

地区预测的风险依然存在。世界银行东亚太平洋地区首席经济学家郝福满说:发达经济体的复苏速度比预期慢,全球利率上升,以及最近一段时间因东欧地缘政治紧张局势而导致大宗商品价格波动加剧,这些都提醒我们东亚仍然容易受到全球发展的不利影响。

从光明的一面来看,正如去年美联储削减量化宽松的小插曲所显示,灵活的货币政策将有助于东亚地区应对外部冲击,也包括可能发生的资本流向逆转。此外,大多数国家拥有足够的外汇储备,可以应付短暂的贸易和外部冲击。

郝福满说:从长远来看,要想保持高增长,东亚发展中国家应当加倍努力推进结构性改革,提高自身的增长潜力,提振市场信心,

结构性改革的关键是减少脆弱性和加强长期增长的可持续性。中国已在金融、市场准入、劳动力流动和财政政策领域经启动了一系列改革,以期提高经济增长效率和扩大内需。随着时间的推移,这些措施将会把经济置于更稳定、包容和可持续的基础之上。政府已经宣布的一些举措,如税制改革和降低私人投资门槛,​​也有可能在短期内刺激经济增长。

中国改革的成功可以给向其提供农产品、消费品和现代服务业的贸易伙伴带来可观的好处。相反,中国如果出现无序再平衡,其溢出效应可能损害地区和全球的经济增长,尤其对于依靠自然资源出口的国家。

半年报说,东亚地区其他发展中国家也可以从结构性改革中受益,如国际贸易便利化和促进外国直接投资,特别是在服务行业。在此背景下,在2015年建立东盟经济共同体可以促进区域内的投资和出口,开拓重要的增长来源。

Structural Reforms Key to Long-Term Growth and Prosperity

SINGAPORE, April 7, 2014 – Developing countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see stable economic growth this year, bolstered by a recovery in high-income economies and the market’s modest response so far to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing, according to the East Asia Pacific Economic Update released today by the World Bank.

Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely unchanged from 2013, the report says. As a result, East Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world, despite a slowdown from the average growth rate of 8.0 percent from 2009 to 2013. In China, growth will ease slightly, to 7.6 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013. Excluding China, the developing countries in the region will grow by 5.0 percent, slightly down from 5.2 percent last year.

“East Asia Pacific has served as the world’s main growth engine since the global financial crisis,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President. “Stronger global growth this year will help the region expand at a relatively steady pace while adjusting to tighter global financial conditions.”

Larger Southeast Asian economies, such as Indonesia and Thailand, will face tougher global financial conditions and higher levels of household debt. Malaysia’s growth will accelerate modestly, to 4.9 percent in 2014. Its exports will increase, but higher debt servicing costs and ongoing fiscal consolidation will weigh on domestic demand. In the Philippines, growth could slow to 6.6 percent, but accelerating reconstruction spending would offset the drag on consumption from the effects of natural disasters in 2013.

The smaller economies are expected to grow steadily, but face overheating risks that could require further monetary tightening. In Cambodia, renewed reform momentum after the elections is expected to help stabilize growth at 7.2 percent this year, but labor market instability could pose downside risks. Steady progress in structural reforms will help Myanmar grow at 7.8 percent. But with limited progress in structural reforms in banking and other sectors, the Vietnamese economy is expected to grow modestly, at 5.5 percent this year. Most of the Pacific Islands and Timor-Leste remain dependent on aid and remittances from advanced economies.

Risks to the regional forecast remain. “A slower-than-expected recovery in advanced economies, a rise in global interest rates, and increased volatility in commodity prices on account of recent geo-political tensions in Eastern Europe serve as reminders that East Asia remains vulnerable to adverse global developments,” said Bert Hofman, Chief Economist of the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Region.

On the bright side, as last year’s tapering episode demonstrated, flexible currencies will help East Asia deal with external shocks, including potential capital-flow reversals. In addition, most countries have adequate reserves to cover temporary trade and external shocks.

“Over the longer term, to keep growth high, developing East Asia should redouble efforts to pursue structural reforms to increase their underlying growth potential and enhance market confidence,” Hofman said.

Structural reforms are key to reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing the sustainability of long-term growth. China has already begun a series of reforms in finance, market access, labor mobility and fiscal policy to increase the efficiency of growth and boost domestic demand. Over time, these measures will put the economy on a more stable, inclusive and sustainable footing. Some initiatives that the government has already announced, such as tax reform and lowering barriers to private investment, may also spur growth in the short term.

Successful reforms in China could bring considerable benefits to trade partners supplying it with agricultural products, consumption goods and modern services. Conversely, spillovers from a disorderly rebalancing in China could hurt regional and global growth, especially in countries relying on natural resource exports.

The rest of the region’s developing countries could also benefit from structural reforms, such as facilitating international trade and promoting foreign direct investment, especially in the services sector. In this context, the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 could boost intra-regional investment and exports and provide an important source of growth, the report says. 

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2014年04月08日

世界银行报告:结构性改革是长期增长和经济繁荣的关键

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