世界银行发布《201712月中国经济简报:增长韧性与改革动力》,主要内容如下:

l  在居民收入增长和外需回暖的支撑下,2017年前三个季度中国经济保持6.9%的强劲增速。

l  经济韧性反映在较高水平的就业上,20171-9月净增就业岗位近1100万个。

l  中国推出旨在减少宏观经济失衡和控制金融风险的政策和规定,也为改革增添了动力。

l  因此,非金融行业信贷总额增长放缓,非银行金融市场尤为明显。

l  2016-2017年出台的重要措施解决了实施作为2014年《预算法》修改内容之一的地方政府债务管理改革遇到的一些挑战。

l  本期《中国经济简报》也对进行中的养老体制改革取得的成果和存在的挑战进行了评估。

l  预计GDP增速2018年放慢至6.4%20196.3%,主要原因是国内政策收紧。

China Economic Update - December 2017: Growth Resilience and Reform Momentum

Economic growth in China has remained strong in 2017, supported by rising household incomes and improving external demand. Growth is projected at 6.8 percent in 2017, exceeding initial expectations, according to the World Bank’s China Economic Update released today.

“China has maintained its growth resilience and gained reform momentum. The authorities have undertaken a host of policy and regulatory measures aimed at reducing macroeconomic imbalances and limiting financial risks without notable impact on growth. As a result,2017 has been a successful year for China on many fronts. Economic rebalancing received a boost—the growth of household incomes and consumption accelerated this year relative to investment,” said John Litwack, World Bank Lead Economist for China.

The recovery in global trade has been an important factor supporting economic activity in China in 2017, with net exports contributing positively to growth for three consecutive quarters, compared to a negative contribution in 2015-2016. Business confidence has improved as well, job creation remains buoyant, capital outflows have stabilized, and the Renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar, the Update says.

Since late 2016, the Government has introduced important measures to slow down the pace of leverage in the economy. These include tighter monetary policy and a series of regulations to reduce financial risks. In response, growth in total credit to the non-financial sector moderated to 14.1 percent annualized in the eleven months of 2017, compared to 15.9 percent in 2016. An even more significant slowdown in the expansion of credit has been observed in the non-bank financial market.

GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 6.4 percent in 2018 and 6.3 percent in 2019 mainly because of domestic policy tightening. Prudent monetary policy, stricter financial sector regulation, and the Government’s continuing efforts to restructure the economy and to reign in the pace of leveraging are expected to contribute to the growth moderation.

“Favorable economic conditions make this a particularly opportune time to further reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities and pursue reforms that target ‘better quality, more efficient, fairer, and more sustainable development,’ as emphasized by President Xi during the 19th Party Congress in October," said Elitza Mileva, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author of the report.

The special topics included in this report take stock of two important on-going reforms – of the government budget and of China’s pension system. Successful implementation of these reforms is critical to China’s macroeconomic stability, economic rebalancing, and social transformation over the coming years.

l  Supported by rising household incomes and improving external demand, economic growth in China remained strong at 6.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2017.

l  The economic resilience has been reflected in relatively high job creation, with almost 11 million net new jobs available in January-September 2017.

l  The country has also gained reform momentum by introducing policies and regulations aimed at reducing macroeconomic imbalances and limiting financial risks.

l  In response, growth in total credit to the non-financial sector has moderated, in particular in the non-bank financial market.

l  In 2016-2017, important measures addressed some of the earlier implementation challenges of the reform of local government debt management as part of the 2014 Budget Law revision.

l  This issue of the China Economic Update also takes stock of the successes and remaining challenges of the ongoing pension system reform.

l  GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 6.4 percent in 2018 and 6.3 percent in 2019 mainly because of domestic policy tightening.

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2017年12月19日

世界银行预测中国经济增速2017年6.8% 2018年6.4% 2019年6.3%

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